Global investors are fleeing.
In 2015, global emerging markets funds saw record $72.6 billion outflow, or 8% of assets under management, well beyond the previous peak of $39 billion outflow in the depth of the Great Financial Crisis in 2008, data provided by EPFR Global shows.
Last year was the third consecutive year of outflow, after $23 billion in 2014 and $16 billion in 2013.
In the last week of December, global emerging markets funds saw $289 million outflow, considerably lighter than the previous week’s $1.5 billion but marking a ninth consecutive week of outflow nonetheless. Since July 2015, global investors pulled money out 22 of the 25 weeks.
But don’t see this as a “tactical buy” sign, according to Morgan Stanley. This because the last 9 weeks of outflow were not strong enough, noted strategist Jonathan Garner:
The magnitude of outflows in the current streak of 9 outflow weeks is US$12.5 bn or 1.7% of AUM. In the past outflows over 4% of AUM on a 10-week rolling basis have been a strong signal to tactically buy EM Equities.
In 2015, the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) fell 16%, the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) dropped 15.6%.